Initiative 645 targets a tax passed to hit anyone or any household earning more than a million dollars a year. The first million in earnings stays exempt, but every dollar above that gets taxed at 9.9% starting in 2029, if the law survives long enough to take effect. Campaign ads for the measure are already showing up on TV screens across the state.

Opponents of the tax gathered enough signatures to force the repeal question onto the ballot, setting up a fight months before the tax would ever generate revenue. A "no" vote on I-2109 would keep the tax in place, while a "yes" vote would kill it before it starts.

For high earners in Washington, the outcome decides whether that extra income above a million dollars stays untouched or gets taxed at nearly 10% once 2029 arrives. For the state, it determines whether a funding source that hasn't collected a cent yet ever gets the chance to.

Both campaigns are ramping up spending months ahead of a tax that, so far, exists only on paper.