Talarico holds narrow lead over Paxton in latest Texas Senate poll - FOX 7 Austin

The poll puts Talarico at 47 percent and Paxton at 46 percent, with Libertarian Ted Brown pulling 3 percent and 4 percent of voters still undecided. Texas Southern surveyed 1,800 likely voters between September 15 and September 19, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.31 percent. Election day sits 41 days out.

Neither candidate is winning over the state right now. Talarico's favorability sits at 47 percent positive against 50 percent negative. Paxton fares worse, with 43 percent viewing him favorably and 55 percent unfavorably. Both numbers land in net negative territory, a sign that voters across Texas, including here in Lubbock County, are choosing between two candidates they don't love rather than one they're excited about.

For West Texas voters, a race this tight means every vote counts more than usual. A one-point statewide lead with a 2.31 percent margin of error is functionally a toss-up. Turnout in places like Lubbock could swing the outcome either way.

Two candidates nobody fully likes, and a race too close to call with six weeks left.