Add US military demand, and the gap could double if SpaceX does not extend the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy program to cover increased national security needs. Analysts also see no evidence that Starship will launch traditional satellites.
The report lists familiar causes. The war in Ukraine took Russian rockets off the Western market, and Amazon Leo demand adds pressure. New rockets, from New Glenn and Vulcan to Neutron, Terran R and Nova, have hit developmental delays. More recently, the Falcon 9 retired as a rocket for commercial service.
Commercial rocket supply is shrinking while demand soars, from megaconstellation operators to a flurry of small satellite startups. The report expects the crunch to hit hardest in 2028 and then slowly improve.
"What we learned is that the launch crisis is more severe than we thought and that it will not go away this decade for sure," said Caleb Henry, Quilty Space's director of research. He added that relief might not arrive until sometime late in the 2030s.
Henry's advice for anyone who still needs a ride to orbit and hasn't booked one is blunt: "You're late."