The measure sits on California's November ballot. Support falls short of a majority, and 14% of respondents said they remain undecided. The 10-point gap between "yes" and "no" voters falls outside the poll's margin of error, which is plus or minus 4 percentage points for each side.
A companion survey found the spread nearly identical among Hispanic likely voters, suggesting the divide holds steady across that group too.
The numbers put the wealth tax in a strange spot heading into the fall. It leads, but the undecided voters could decide the outcome in the final weeks before Election Day. The measure threatens the finances of California's wealthiest residents if it passes. For the state, it represents a potential new revenue source that voters seem to like more than they trust.
A ballot measure this close, with so many voters still on the fence, is exactly the kind of race that keeps campaign strategists up at night.