James Talarico continues to edge out Ken Paxton in Texas’ U.S. Senate race, new poll finds - Houston Public Media

James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at UT Austin, called the lead "pretty historic," pointing out that several polls taken throughout the summer have shown Talarico ahead by a similar margin, with some coming in a little bigger and some a little smaller. The consistency across multiple surveys is what makes this one stand out.

Fourteen percent of respondents remain undecided, a share larger than the gap separating the two candidates, which means that block of voters could still shift the outcome either direction. Texas has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, so a Talarico lead of any size draws attention from political watchers statewide, including plenty of folks in Lubbock who have watched Paxton navigate multiple legal battles while holding the state's top law enforcement post.

For people here in West Texas, a competitive Senate race means both parties will likely spend money and attention on a state they have treated as a foregone conclusion for decades.