New poll makes Texas governor race a dead heat with 2 months left - El Paso Times

The September survey shows Hinojosa at 46 percent and Abbott at 47 percent, a gap that falls within the margin of error. Hinojosa's campaign says she is winning key voter groups and argues Abbott is losing ground with Latino voters, Independents, and Republicans. For West Texas and Lubbock, a region that leans heavily conservative, a dead-heat statewide race is worth watching.

A Fox News poll from July added more detail to Hinojosa's coalition, showing her leading among Independents by 27 points, Moderate voters by 21 points, Black voters by 71 points, and Latino voters by 16 points. Those margins, if they hold, would represent a significant shift in Texas political math.

A competitive governor's race means down-ballot contests and local turnout could carry more weight than usual in November. Every vote counts more when the top of the ticket is genuinely in play.

The last time a Democrat won the Texas governorship was 1990, when Ann Richards defeated Clayton Williams.