Texas 2026 Poll: Paxton and Talarico Deadlocked in U.S. Senate Race; Abbott Leads Hinojosa by Four Points - emersoncollegepolling.com

Texass 2026 U.S. Senate race is neck-and-neck right now, with Ken Paxton and James Talarico separated by just one point. A fresh poll from Emerson College and Nexstar Media shows Republican Ken Paxton at 47% and Democrat James Talarico at 46% among likely voters. Every ballot, from North Overton dorms to families out in Raintree, will carry significant weight. Governor Greg Abbott holds a four-point lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa, 49% to 45%, in the same survey.

The Senate contest reveals a clear age divide. Voters under 50 support Talarico by 15 points, while older Texans over 50 prefer Paxton by 11 points. This demographic split could make campaigning around Texas Tech and across the South Plains particularly intense, with candidates focusing on different generational appeals. The economy and immigration stand out as the top concerns for voters statewide, shaping political dialogue.

For folks across Lubbock, expect a barrage of campaign ads on TV and your phone. Candidates will fight for every available vote. This signals that discussions about job growth and border policy will dominate conversations at local coffee shops and over dinner tables across the 806. Expect candidates to make stops in places like the Depot District or near Buddy Holly Hall, looking to connect with specific voter groups.

Only 5% of voters are undecided in the U.S. Senate race, leaving little room for error on either side.