Abbott, Talarico leading, races no longer considered solid Republican - The Center Square

The University of Virginia's Center for Politics shifted its rating of the Texas U.S. Senate race from "leans Republican" to a full toss-up, and moved the governor's race from "safe Republican" to "likely Republican." That's a meaningful slide for a state that has voted red in presidential races for decades. The Cook Political Report made similar moves, also calling the Senate race a toss-up and labeling the governor's race "leans right" rather than solidly Republican.

For people here in Lubbock, a reliably conservative part of the state, these shifts carry weight. West Texas tends to drive up Republican margins, and statewide candidates count on that cushion. If the governor's race is closer than expected, turnout in places like Lubbock could matter more than usual in November.

Talarico is running for U.S. Senate, while Abbott seeks another term as governor. The forecasters' downgrades signal that neither outcome is a sure thing, even as both candidates currently lead in polling.

Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994.