Big 12 football: Athlon Sports ranks all 16 teams by tiers for 2026 - On3

The national sports publication grouped the 16 Big 12 teams into five distinct tiers. Our Red Raiders landed squarely in Tier 3, placing them alongside Utah and Arizona State. This puts them a notch below anticipated top contenders like Kansas State and Arizona. These long-range rankings consider future recruiting cycles and coaching stability, looking ahead to a massively changed league landscape. They sit above the bottom tier, which includes newcomers like Colorado and Houston. This forecast offers an early snapshot of where Tech could stand, a view many fans around the Depot District are already debating.

For Red Raider Nation, this third-tier slot means neither outright championship contention nor a basement finish. It shapes expectations for upcoming seasons, impacting conversations from the tailgates on Marsha Sharp Freeway to the discussions at local spots like The Lantern. A competitive, but not dominant, team is projected as the league settles into its new structure. For a town built on Tech football, this projection sets a baseline for the coming years, fueling both hope and plenty of "what if" scenarios.

Just two years out, Texas Tech finds itself projected in the same tier as a team currently playing in a completely different conference.