The Texas Public Opinion Research survey, published Friday, polled 1,007 likely Texas voters between September 19 and 22. It carries a 3.6 percent margin of error and found state Representative Talarico still ahead of incumbent Paxton, though his edge narrowed compared to earlier polling.
Democrats see Texas as a long shot but real opportunity to flip a seat in November's midterms. The state hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1988, and a win here would meaningfully improve the party's odds of retaking Senate control.
For Talarico, the shrinking lead matters less than the shrinking pool of undecided voters. Two separate polls now show fewer Texans on the fence, which means the race is hardening into its final shape earlier than some expected. Every point matters in a state where Democrats haven't broken through in decades. A one-point slide can be noise, or it can be the start of a trend.
Paxton is fighting to hold a seat that has stayed Republican for decades. Whether Talarico's shrinking cushion is a blip or a warning sign, both campaigns now have a clearer picture of who's still persuadable, and it's a shorter list than it was last month.