Texas governor race swings to Hinojosa in latest poll - FOX 7 Austin

The poll comes from ReconMR and the Siena Research Institute, released about a month before early voting starts in Texas. Back in July, the same pollsters had Abbott ahead of Hinojosa 46 to 45. That four-point flip in three months is not small, and it comes almost entirely from one group, independents.

ReconMR Senior Research Analyst Lindsey Hendren said independent voters now back Hinojosa by 38 points, 65 to 27 percent. In July, that same group favored her by just 13 points, 49 to 36. Movement like that among voters who do not identify with either party often signals which way a close race is trending.

For people here in Lubbock, this matters because West Texas turnout can swing statewide margins in ways that surprise pundits on both coasts. A governor's race this close means every county, including ones far from Austin and Houston, gets more attention from both campaigns between now and election day.