Polls show Senate, governor races tightening in Texas ahead of midterm elections

In the governor's race, incumbent Greg Abbott holds a slim lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa. That margin sits within the margin of error, meaning the race is a statistical toss-up.

Both contests point to a tighter statewide political landscape than Texas has seen in recent cycles. Paxton, the sitting attorney general, now trails a Democratic challenger in Senate polling, a shift from his party's typical dominance in statewide races.

For Texas voters, the numbers suggest neither party can bank on an easy win this cycle. A three-point Senate lead can evaporate before election day, so both campaigns will likely pour resources into turnout between now and November. Down-ballot candidates in both parties are watching these numbers too, since a competitive top of the ticket often shapes how hard each side fights in closer local races.

Two of the most closely watched races in the country right now are happening in a state Republicans have carried for decades.