Sam Houston State vs Texas Tech Prediction Saturday Sept. 26

The No. 11 Red Raiders enter the game 3-0 overall and 1-0 in the Big 12 after grinding out a 28-26 win over a ranked Houston team in their conference opener. Quarterback Will Hammond has helped keep Texas Tech unbeaten through the season's first month. Sam Houston State sits at 1-2, though both losses came by a single score, and the Bearkats' defense hasn't allowed more than 24 points in any game this season.

A spread this large usually signals a blowout, but Sam Houston State's ability to keep games close, even in losses, raises a real question about whether the Bearkats can slow down a Red Raiders offense that's carried Texas Tech to three straight wins.

For anyone in Lubbock planning to watch or bet on Saturday's game, the storyline is simple. Texas Tech is favored to roll, but the Bearkats have shown they don't fold easily, even against tougher competition than a 1-2 record suggests.

That gap between the number and Sam Houston State's history of tight games is what makes this spread worth a second look.