Croatia's chances sit at 27.4 percent heading into the game. The two sides carry plenty of history, Luka Modric and his teammates knocked England out of the 2018 World Cup, only for England to get revenge at Euro 2020 and again at the 2026 World Cup.
England comes in with momentum after a 2-0 win over Czechia on Tuesday. Croatia, managed by Slaven Bilic, limps into Rijeka off a 4-1 loss to Spain in its last outing.
For Croatia, the stakes go beyond today's match. The team has lost five of its 10 games in 2026, and a defeat to England would mark a sixth loss in a single calendar year, something Croatia has never done before.
For England, a win would extend the edge it has held over Croatia since that 2020 turnaround and keep Tuchel's side rolling after a confident midweek performance. Modric's squad needs a result just to steady a rough year before it gets worse.
That record is one bad night in Rijeka away from falling.