Marquee contests from Maine to Michigan soak up the attention and the cash. The quieter ones could produce upsets. In recent days, election prognosticators have shifted even more races toward Democrats, but some seats still give Republicans a shot at an incumbent Democrat or an open seat. Mid-decade redistricting in red states may also help Republicans knock off some Democrats.
New Hampshire's Senate race shows how tricky that math gets. Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is retiring, which leaves an open seat that Cook Political Report calls a tossup despite the expected blue wave. Republican John Sununu comes from political royalty. His dad and brother both served as governor, and he held a US Senate seat himself until he lost it to Shaheen in 2008.
Democrat Chris Pappas, a US representative since 2019, is running to succeed her. He was the first openly gay man to represent the state in Congress. Democrats have the edge, but New Hampshire has a Republican governor and a Republican-controlled legislature, and both of its US senators are Democrats.
Kansas also makes the list, where the question is whether Democrats can beat the odds with Senate candidate Adam Hamilton.