Monday stays warm and breezy, with southerly winds and high pressure building over the region. It ranks as one of the two hottest days in the forecast period. A slight chance of isolated thunderstorms shows up late in the evening, but weak instability and a lack of upper atmospheric support should keep coverage low, so meteorologists do not expect organized severe weather.
Then the pattern flips. As an upper-level low moves slowly south and east, severe thunderstorms become possible across much of the area Tuesday afternoon through evening. The highest chances sit off the Caprock. Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes all remain on the table.
Heavy rain becomes the bigger threat from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon, especially across the eastern South Plains and off the Caprock. Meteorologists say swaths of 2 or more inches are possible, and localized flooding could follow in some spots. Severe storms cannot be ruled out Wednesday and Thursday either.